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Projections

Learn about projections and how to model burn and spend in Pilfer

Projections pull together burn rate data with asset values and scout costs to model remaining runway holistically. They help you understand how your financial position will change over time based on recurring costs, planned purchases, and asset values.

Note: In projections, runway is a calculated metric (typically “months until” a balance threshold). The app’s Runway section is different: a monthly plan, bucket budgets, and transaction logging. See Runway for that workflow.

How Projections Work

Projections calculate your financial position month-by-month by:

  1. Starting with your account balance (from recurs/burn models)
  2. Adding asset values (what you own)
  3. Subtracting scout costs (planned purchases)
  4. Applying recurring costs (monthly/annual burn)
  5. Showing the resulting balance over time

This gives you a complete picture of:

  • Current Position: Where you are now
  • Future Position: Where you'll be in X months
  • Runway: How long until you hit a threshold (like zero balance)
  • Impact of Decisions: How purchases affect your runway

Creating Projections

Projections are created automatically when you:

  • View a burn model's projections tab
  • View a project's projections tab

You don't need to manually create projections - they're calculated based on:

  • Selected burn models (recurring costs)
  • Selected assets (asset values)
  • Selected scouts (planned purchases)
  • Single events (one-time income or expenses)

Projection Components

Account Value

Starting balance from your burn models. This is your cash on hand or account balance.

Asset Value

Total value of assets you've selected to include. This represents the value of what you own.

Scouting Value

Total cost of scouts you've selected to include. This represents planned spending.

Burn Rate

Monthly and annual net change from recurring costs (incoming - outgoing).

Configuring Projections

You can configure projections by selecting:

  • Burn Models: Which recurring costs to include
  • Assets: Which assets to include in the calculation
  • Scouts: Which planned purchases to include
  • Single Events: One-time income or expenses
  • Date Ranges: When burn models are active
  • Scout Timing: When scouts will be purchased (which month)

Projection Periods

You can view projections for different time periods:

  • 3 Months: Short-term view
  • 6 Months: Medium-term planning
  • 12 Months: Annual planning
  • 24 Months: Long-term view
  • Custom Range: Specific date range

Runway Calculation

Here runway means the projection output: how many months until you hit a threshold (default is zero balance), based on your selected recurs, assets, scouts, and events—not the Runway month plan and transaction UI.

Projections automatically calculate this runway. You can adjust the threshold to see:

  • When you'll run out of money
  • When you'll hit a specific balance
  • How long you can operate at current burn

Month-by-Month Breakdown

The projection shows:

  • Month: Time period
  • Balance: Projected balance at end of month
  • Burn: Net change from recurring costs
  • Change: Total change in balance (including scouts and events)
  • Scouts: Which scouts are planned for that month
  • Events: Single events in that month

Scenario Planning

You can model different scenarios by:

  • Including/excluding specific assets
  • Including/excluding specific scouts
  • Adjusting burn model date ranges
  • Changing scout timing
  • Adjusting the threshold

This helps you:

  • Compare different spending plans
  • See the impact of delaying purchases
  • Understand trade-offs between options
  • Make informed financial decisions

Project Projections

Projects have their own projections that show:

  • Project-specific burn (recurs scoped to the project)
  • Assets linked to the project
  • Scouts linked to the project
  • How the project affects overall company runway

This allows you to model the financial impact of individual projects and see how they contribute to overall company financial health.